THIS WEEK’S SCENARIOS

Hamilton Tiger-Cats:

• If they win OR tie against Montreal, they clinch a playoff berth
• A loss or tie by either BC OR Montreal will also clinch a playoff berth from Hamilton, who can do no worse than 9-9
• If BC loses OR ties, BC, Winnipeg and Saskatchewan cannot catch Hamilton as none of them can reach the 9 wins Hamilton already has
• Hamilton controls their own destiny: even if Toronto went 4-0, a 4-0 Hamilton run would bring them first place in the East

Toronto Argonauts:

• Precisely the same as Hamilton, since both are 9-5

Ottawa REDBLACKS:

• A Montreal LOSS puts Ottawa into the playoffs, as the worst that Ottawa could be is 8-10 and the best Montreal mark would be 8-10. Ottawa owns the tie-breaker vs Montreal (3-0 season series)
• An Ottawa WIN over Winnipeg will also put Ottawa into the playoffs, as they have won the season series over Montreal. Even if the end the season tied with Montreal at 9-9 (by losing their last 3 games) they survive as they have won the season series over Montreal and would also survive a 3-way tie among Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal (based on record among tied teams).
• If Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal were to finish the season in a 3-way tie with each other, Ottawa and Toronto would have the edge based on their record in games between the three clubs: Toronto is 4-0, Ottawa is 3-3, and Montreal is 0-4 through Week 16. With only one game left between these three teams (Toronto vs Montreal on October 23rd), Toronto and Ottawa's records among the three teams have ensured that they would finish in a playoff position
• An Ottawa win ensures that the crossover from West to East is not possible

Montreal Alouettes:

• The East playoffs are not out of the picture for Montreal. If they go 4-0 & Ottawa goes 0-4 in their final games of the season, then Montreal finishes 3rd or even 2nd if the win over Toronto is by 9 points or more
• A Montreal loss AND an Ottawa win eliminates Montreal from the East, leaving the crossover as their only route to the playoffs

Eastern home game situation:

• CANNOT be settled this coming week as Ottawa still has two games left against Hamilton. Long way to go just yet

The West:

• The top two spots are settled but the order has yet to be decided
• Edmonton owns the tie-breaker and so controls their own destiny
• Even if Winnipeg wins all three of their remaining games, they are still not assured a playoff spot as BC could go 4-0 and finish 3rd. They have no more games against one another
• The rest is still absolutely wide open but BC needs to win OR tie their game in hand (over Winnipeg) to stay in 3rd as the Blue Bombers own the tie-breaker.

 

CROSS-OVER UPDATE

• Winnipeg's win over BC combined with Montreal’s loss to Toronto set up a great finish for the final West Division playoff spot in 2015
• All three clubs fighting for the crossover spot have five wins, with Winnipeg having played one more game than the other two, with just three games left on their 2015 schedule
• The Bombers hold the tie-breaker over the Lions, and BC’s remaining games are all against clubs either in the playoffs already or with virtual locks on a post-season berth
• Winnipeg starts a back-to-back set this week with Ottawa who have improved their record to 8-6 from 2-12 at this point in 2014

MARK YOUR CALENDARS

• The CFL trade deadline is set for October 14^th, 2015 at 3:59 p.m. ET
• Earlier today, the Montreal Alouettes acquired Saskatchewan Roughriders QB Kevin Glenn
• Glenn ranks 7^th all-time passing yards with 45,510
• He has 179 career-starts for five different clubs with a record of (90-88-1). Only six players have more quarterback starts than Glenn
• If Glenn starts a game for Montreal he will tie Damon Allen and Matt Dunigan with at least one start for six different teams
• Glenn will now be on the roster for his 8^th CFL club. The only traditional CFL team he has not been a member of is the Edmonton Eskimos

A GAME OF INCHES

• There have been 25 games decided by 4 points or less (38% of games) in 2015. This has become a new all-time single-season record with four more weeks to go in the season
• The previous record occurred during the 2010 and 1996 seasons
• That’s already SEVEN more than all of 2014
• The record-setting game came in Week 16 when the Blue Bombers came back to defeat the BC Lions 29-26 at B.C. Place

PENALTIES DOWN, SCORING AND OFFENCE ON PAR

• Week 16 averaged just 22.4 penalties per game, helping to reduce the season average to its lowest point of the year at 24.145 per game
• Games have averaged only 22 penalties per game over the last 15 games
• Compared to last season, the percentage increase has dropped to 9.8%
• The trend of more penalties per game is not a phenomenon isolated to north of the 49^th parallel: the NFL has seen penalties up 14.2% this season compared to their 2014 totals
• Week 16 contests averaged 48.2 points per game and 675 yards of net offence
• Both are not far off the 2015 total, 49.6 points per game and 669 net yards per game
• Nailbiters: the margin of victory during the five game set in Week 16 was less than a converted touchdown at 6.6 points

IT’S A RUSHING RACE, EH

• BC Lions RB and Winnipeg, Manitoba native Andrew Harris holds the rushing lead for the season with 866 yards with four games to play
• Harris owns a 40-yard lead on Toronto, Ontario native Jerome Messam who has 826 yards rushing with only three games left
• Jon Cornish from New Westminster, BC could make it a Canadian Trifecta at the top of the rushing race
• If he continues his rushing pace of 76 yards per game, he would rush for 844 yards in only 12 games
• Cornish trails Harris by 244 yards and has three games left to play
• There has never been a season in CFL history where the top three rushers were all Canadian

FIVE FIELD GOALS IN A GAME

• Winnipeg’s Sergio Castillo took over place-kicking duties for the Bombers last week
• He went a perfect 5-for-5 in his first CFL game
• Castillo hit the league’s 12^th game winning field goal (last 3:00) of the season
• The last time a Winnipeg kicker made a field goal on the Bombers' final play to win was on August 24, 2007 when Rob Pikula made a 28-yarder to beat Toronto 15-13
• The last time Winnipeg made an absolute last-play FG to win was by Troy Westwood from 55 yards on July 10, 2003
• The most recent kicker to boot five successful field goals in his first CFL game was Calgary’s Rob Maver on July 2^nd, 2010. He went 5-for-6

QUICK HITS OVER THE TOP

• In 36 possible season series in a 9-team CFL, 27 could end up with one team sweeping the other this season
• The East Division owns a combined record of 31-25 (.554) with three teams currently owning winning records
• The last time the East Division finished above .500 was in 2004
• The East owns the record against the West this year going 19-13 with only eight meetings left
• The East has not won the season series since 2004 when they went 23-17
• In Week 16, winning teams allowed only 13 sacks while the losing teams allowed 21
• That’s 10 straight weeks where losing teams allowed more than the total of the winning clubs that week
• Edmonton Eskimos has held 10 of 15 opponents under 20 points this season, the most by any team since Edmonton did 13 times in 1995
• Edmonton is 9-1 this year when holding the opposition to 19 points or less
• The Esks’ opponents have scored only 11 TDs on offence in the last seven games
• If Anthony Boone gets the nod for the Alouettes next week, he would become the 22^nd different QB to start in 2015, one more than in 2014